The Democratic Party in the United States is on the verge of collapse. With Senator Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania last night, the race for the nomination has undoubtedly been guaranteed to go down to the convention. Clintonites argue that their candidate is more battle tested and that this tough race is good for the party. It airs dirty laundry and puts everything on the table for the people of the United States to see. In reality, the Clinton ego is dragging the Party down a dangerous road. At the end of which is a maelstrom waiting to sink the boat of America's Left.
There is no indication so far that the Pennsylvania victory turns the tides in anyone's favor. Instead, it will most likely preserve the status quo. Senator Obama lost a state that is heavily populated by white working class voters. And, as expected, the breakdown shows that he won the areas of the state which were populated with educated and African American voters. But the numbers in Pennsylvania tell a different story. The Democratic voters are increasingly voting along demographic lines. This means that the support for candidates is becoming cemented among certain groups. White working class voters went something like 70-30 in favor of Clinton. Whereas blacks when the usual 80-20 for Obama.
So what happens at the end of the road. Mathematically it is impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in the popular vote or the delegate count. Unless she wins a few states by more than considerable margins, she cannot catch up. Her strategy now seems to be focused on marring Obama's reputation through negative campaign ads and scrutinizing everything he does. Obama has been far from the golden boy recently as well in his responses. This is a fair political tactic in the United States. For a general election perhaps. But it is a dangerous strategy to employ during primary season. It undermines the party's credibility and gives the appearance of petty bickering. The candidates just don't seem to understand that the entire country, not just the Democrats, are watching this. A Karl Rove scorched earth tactic isn't doing the Party any favors.
If Clinton's strategy works and she convinces the superdelegates that Obama's ability to get elected is suspect, then the Party will fracture. Obama has the numbers and popular vote to make a legitimate case for his ascension into the general election. If the superdelegates overrule the popular vote, then they will be essentially be saying that the people don't matter. Something they themselves accused the Supreme Court of saying in the 2000 election. Can this manner of hypocrisy go unpunished? No. If the Party hands the nomination to Hillary, they will alienate a good portion of their constituency. The black base of the Party will no longer have exclusive faith in the Democrats nor will the intellectual elite that has supported Obama. Furthermore, the masses who have donated to Obama's campaign at a grassroots level may sit the election out or vote for the Republican nominee. It is a doomsday scenario for the Democrats.
If the Party, on the other hand, goes with the will of its constituency and nominates Obama, the worse case scenario seems less dire. If we assume that Obama loses the general election, there will be an outcry from Senator Clinton and her supporters in a bout of "I told you so!" However, that is a lesser evil to face than the fracturing of the entire Party. Other people may lose faith in the Democrats' ability to win elections. But those numbers would still be less than the possible defectors of the scenario above. And losing an election due to general incompetence is a wound that is easier healed than one based on disenfranchisement. Therefore, allowing Obama to take the nomination based on the numbers and will of the voters would be a better step for the survival of the Democrats. Regardless of what Clintonites may say (basically that America is too racist to elect a black president), Obama is following an unpopular president and has the charisma necessary to take the White House.
The Doomsday scenario for the Democrats would come to fruition if Hillary Clinton garnered the nomination on the backs of superdelegates and still managed to lose the general election to Senator McCain. Clinton would appear to have bullied the Party into giving her the nomination at the expense of the popular vote winner only to lose an almost certain Democratic White House. This would probably end the Democratic Party as we know it. The Obama supporters would feel disenfranchised and vindicated at the same time. And that is dangerous combination. The would have a legitimate gripe about having their candidate's chances wrestled away unjustly and the gall to take action because the opposition failed to secure the ultimate prize. The sections of the Party supporting Obama would be completely justified in forming a third party. The only thing that could save the party is Obama convincing his followers to remain with the Democrats. Even so, the battle lines will have been drawn and there will be a battle of coalitions within the Party for years to come.
This prolonged race, no matter what both candidates say, is damaging the credibility of the Democratic Party. The Republicans, who may not necessarily support McCain 100%, are at least resigned to the fact that he won the nomination fairly and accept the will of the electorate. Furthermore, they are being unified by the intramural bickering taking place between the Democrats. The dysfunction across the isle gives more credence to the Republican claim that they are more qualified to run the country and it justifies their historic hold on the White House. If the Democrats can't even run their own primary and set up a logical party system, how can they even claim to be able to run the country? The problem is that the Republicans don't even have to explicitly state this about their rivals. Its something the people will consider subconsciously during the general election.
The only way the Democratic Party can dodge the event horizon is if Senator Obama wins the White House. If he manages to pull of the victory, then the Democratic primary system, while still obviously flawed, will have been justified for this election. They would have followed the will of the electorate and claimed victory. The Clintonites would finally be silenced and the party would have, hopefully, 8 years to convalesce. Sure Clinton's supporters will be bitter, but they have no legitimate gripe because the numbers were in favor of Senator Obama and the superdelegates did the right thing. Democracy will have worked. Otherwise, they might as well write You're Welcome cards to John McCain in the oval office.
There is no indication so far that the Pennsylvania victory turns the tides in anyone's favor. Instead, it will most likely preserve the status quo. Senator Obama lost a state that is heavily populated by white working class voters. And, as expected, the breakdown shows that he won the areas of the state which were populated with educated and African American voters. But the numbers in Pennsylvania tell a different story. The Democratic voters are increasingly voting along demographic lines. This means that the support for candidates is becoming cemented among certain groups. White working class voters went something like 70-30 in favor of Clinton. Whereas blacks when the usual 80-20 for Obama.
So what happens at the end of the road. Mathematically it is impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in the popular vote or the delegate count. Unless she wins a few states by more than considerable margins, she cannot catch up. Her strategy now seems to be focused on marring Obama's reputation through negative campaign ads and scrutinizing everything he does. Obama has been far from the golden boy recently as well in his responses. This is a fair political tactic in the United States. For a general election perhaps. But it is a dangerous strategy to employ during primary season. It undermines the party's credibility and gives the appearance of petty bickering. The candidates just don't seem to understand that the entire country, not just the Democrats, are watching this. A Karl Rove scorched earth tactic isn't doing the Party any favors.
If Clinton's strategy works and she convinces the superdelegates that Obama's ability to get elected is suspect, then the Party will fracture. Obama has the numbers and popular vote to make a legitimate case for his ascension into the general election. If the superdelegates overrule the popular vote, then they will be essentially be saying that the people don't matter. Something they themselves accused the Supreme Court of saying in the 2000 election. Can this manner of hypocrisy go unpunished? No. If the Party hands the nomination to Hillary, they will alienate a good portion of their constituency. The black base of the Party will no longer have exclusive faith in the Democrats nor will the intellectual elite that has supported Obama. Furthermore, the masses who have donated to Obama's campaign at a grassroots level may sit the election out or vote for the Republican nominee. It is a doomsday scenario for the Democrats.
If the Party, on the other hand, goes with the will of its constituency and nominates Obama, the worse case scenario seems less dire. If we assume that Obama loses the general election, there will be an outcry from Senator Clinton and her supporters in a bout of "I told you so!" However, that is a lesser evil to face than the fracturing of the entire Party. Other people may lose faith in the Democrats' ability to win elections. But those numbers would still be less than the possible defectors of the scenario above. And losing an election due to general incompetence is a wound that is easier healed than one based on disenfranchisement. Therefore, allowing Obama to take the nomination based on the numbers and will of the voters would be a better step for the survival of the Democrats. Regardless of what Clintonites may say (basically that America is too racist to elect a black president), Obama is following an unpopular president and has the charisma necessary to take the White House.
The Doomsday scenario for the Democrats would come to fruition if Hillary Clinton garnered the nomination on the backs of superdelegates and still managed to lose the general election to Senator McCain. Clinton would appear to have bullied the Party into giving her the nomination at the expense of the popular vote winner only to lose an almost certain Democratic White House. This would probably end the Democratic Party as we know it. The Obama supporters would feel disenfranchised and vindicated at the same time. And that is dangerous combination. The would have a legitimate gripe about having their candidate's chances wrestled away unjustly and the gall to take action because the opposition failed to secure the ultimate prize. The sections of the Party supporting Obama would be completely justified in forming a third party. The only thing that could save the party is Obama convincing his followers to remain with the Democrats. Even so, the battle lines will have been drawn and there will be a battle of coalitions within the Party for years to come.
This prolonged race, no matter what both candidates say, is damaging the credibility of the Democratic Party. The Republicans, who may not necessarily support McCain 100%, are at least resigned to the fact that he won the nomination fairly and accept the will of the electorate. Furthermore, they are being unified by the intramural bickering taking place between the Democrats. The dysfunction across the isle gives more credence to the Republican claim that they are more qualified to run the country and it justifies their historic hold on the White House. If the Democrats can't even run their own primary and set up a logical party system, how can they even claim to be able to run the country? The problem is that the Republicans don't even have to explicitly state this about their rivals. Its something the people will consider subconsciously during the general election.
The only way the Democratic Party can dodge the event horizon is if Senator Obama wins the White House. If he manages to pull of the victory, then the Democratic primary system, while still obviously flawed, will have been justified for this election. They would have followed the will of the electorate and claimed victory. The Clintonites would finally be silenced and the party would have, hopefully, 8 years to convalesce. Sure Clinton's supporters will be bitter, but they have no legitimate gripe because the numbers were in favor of Senator Obama and the superdelegates did the right thing. Democracy will have worked. Otherwise, they might as well write You're Welcome cards to John McCain in the oval office.
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